Main Event Today is President Trump's Speech to the New York Economic Club

November 12, 2019

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

The main event today will be President Donald Trumps speech to the New York Economic Club at 11:00 central time. Traders anticipate his speech will provide new insights on the state of the U.S.-China trade situation. In addition, there is speculation that President Trump may announce a delayed tariff decision on European carmakers by six months.

The October National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index was 102.4 when 102.0 was expected.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions, although likely at a much slower pace, from most of the worlds central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S dollar is stronger, as traders grew optimistic ahead of President Trumps speech.

The euro currency is lower in spite of news that the German ZEW indicator of economic sentiment survey posted a big jump in expectations, rising from -22.8 to -2.1 in November.

There are growing indications that the economy of the euro zone is stabilizing. Yesterday it was reported that a survey of economists indicated the European Central Bank will keep its deposit rate unchanged through the first quarter of 2020. A previous survey showed the ECB would cut interest rates by an additional 10 basis points by the first quarter of 2020.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Federal Reserve speakers today are Richmond Federal Reserve Bank PresidentTom Barkinat 11:00, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank PresidentPatrick Harkerat 12:00 and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank PresidentNeel Kashkariat 5:00.

Economists believe there is a 55% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by another 25 basis points at the conclusion of its September 16, 2020 policy meeting.

Yesterday, financial futures markets suggested the Federal Reserve would not be in a position to lower its fed funds rate again until early 2021.

There are indications that the global economy is beginning to stabilize, which suggests major central banks are likely to push farther out into the future additional easing measures. As a result, interest rate market futures are likely to trade only sideways.

The flight to quality influence is likely to reemerge, however, from time to time.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 19S&P 500

Support 3080.00 Resistance 3097.00

December 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 97.980 Resistance 98.300

December 19Euro Currency

Support 1.10260 Resistance 1.10700

December 19Japanese Yen

Support .91580 Resistance .92000

December 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75370 Resistance .75730

December 19Australian Dollar

Support .6825 Resistance .6870

December 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 156^0 Resistance 157^0

December 19Gold

Support 1447.0 Resistance 1462.0

December 19Copper

Support 2.6450 Resistance 2.6850

December 19 Crude Oil

Support 56.34 Resistance 57.78

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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