Grains Report 11/21/18

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis mostly a little higher and Kansas City mostly a little lower. Weather conditions remain unsettled in the Great Plains, and planting progress is still behind normal. There is no shortage of soil moisture, but it is getting too late in the calendar year to plant. The US weather remains bad for getting the last of the Winter Wheat crop planted and emerged in good condition before the crop goes dormant. Ideas are that demand for US Wheat is finally about ready to improve as other world sellers are showing short supplies, but actual demand data has not been real strong and shows no real signs of improvement. World crop reports continue to indicate less production and tightening supplies. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production. It remains very dry in Australia, although some eastern areas have seen some rain and conditions are called generally good in the west.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather or light precipitation. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather or light precipitation. Temperatures should be variable. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 485, 471, and 425 December. Support is at 495, 490, and 487 December, with resistance at 503, 510, and 514 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 468, 462, and 456 December, with resistance at 479, 484, and 487 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 569, 566, and 560 December, and resistance is at 576, 580, and 583 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday in quiet trading. There was little Rice for sale in the US cash market as producers have basically finished the harvest and have locked the bin doors until probably after the first of the year. The charts show that the market is in a short-term range. There was little in the way of real demand news. Trading volumes were limited. The mills appear to be well covered right now.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather, but precipitation is possible on Friday. Temperatures should be below normal. . .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1062, 1051, and 1045 January, with resistance at 1094, 1099, and 1108 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 21
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.13 9.10 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.82 9.27 0.00
Broken 8.52 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower on weakness in Crude Oil and US Dollar strength. It was a long liquidation day. Ideas of stronger domestic demand in the US and little farm selling went against ideas that the crops in South America were being planted and were emerging under good conditions. Conditions are generally good in Brazil, but farmers have been concentrating on planting Soybeans and are now planting Corn. Corn is now being planted in Southern Brazil as producers their finish planting Soybeans. Most of this Corn crop will stay in Brazil to make up for short supplies from last year. Argentina has been too wet in many planes and planting could be delayed.. The US harvest continues and farmers should be able to get done soon. Conditions remain more variable with some rain and dry weather mixed together and cool to cold temperatures. It should be dry with moderate to cold temperatures most of this week. Some precipitation is likely by the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 355 and 342 December. Support is at 360, 355, and 350 December, and resistance is at 368, 372, and 374 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 300, 295, and 290 December, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 313 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mostly higher on reports of new demand for US Soybeans. A new sale was announced on the daily System. Reports from the White House that the trade talks with China were going well also supported the market. Support also came from commercials who are in need of Soybeans for domestic processing needs. There are hopes that something concrete can be worked out before the G-20 meetings in Buenos Aires at the end of the month, but ideas are that nothing firm can be decided until after the first of the year as the differences between the two sides are still very big. The US has a lot to sell this year and in reality has grown too big a crop under even the best scenario. The situation right now could be a total disaster if the standoff continues, especially as Brazil producers are doing all they can to plant early and then harvest early to keep the US shut out of the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 871, 864, and 862 January, and resistance is at 886, 891, and 897 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 302.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 319.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2710 and 2640 December. Support is at 2720, 2700, and 2670 December, with resistance at 2760, 2780, and 2800 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and the strength in the US Dollar. The weakness came along with Chicago Soybeans prices, and funds were the best sellers in Canola as well as in Soybeans. The harvest in the Prairies is now about over. Price action on the daily charts is weak and prices could move lower Less farm selling was reported, and commercials were scale down buyers. Palm Oil closed higher after making new lows for the move. The charts show that the market had an outside day up so higher prices are now possible for tomorrow and into next week. The daily charts show that futures are in a down trend, but the market is getting very oversold.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 793,497 tons so far this month, from 890,622 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 471.00 and 469.00 January. Support is at 475.00, 472.00, and 469.00 January, with resistance at 479.00, 480.00, and 485.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1910 February, with resistance at 2040, 2060, and 2080 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain or snow showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal until normal temperatures return this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 37 December 160 December 65 December 20 January 6 December
December 47 December 70 December 22 January
Jamuary 43 March 60 March 26 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
November
December
January

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 20
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 445.20 dn 3.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 490.20 up 7.00
2 Can 477.20 up 7.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 505.20 up 4.00
2 Can 492.20 up 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)s

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 467.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 490.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 540.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 472.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 495.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 515.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 437.50 -05.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 337.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1,840.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 168.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1930)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 164,398 lots, or 5.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 3,421 3,447 3,391 3,442 3,410 3,426 16 139,898 215,712
Mar-19 3,448 3,460 3,448 3,460 3,447 3,454 7 6 98
May-19 3,646 3,677 3,628 3,666 3,637 3,653 16 23,398 52,050
Jul-19 – – – 3,660 3,660 3,660 0 0 14
Sep-19 3,723 3,734 3,696 3,719 3,711 3,720 9 976 6,318
Nov-19 – – – 3,731 3,731 3,731 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,724 3,730 3,697 3,722 3,700 3,707 7 120 716
Corn
Turnover: 854,280 lots, or 16.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-19 1,887 1,902 1,883 1,901 1,895 1,895 0 215,714 607,376
Mar-19 1,919 1,932 1,916 1,929 1,924 1,927 3 5,306 12,398
May-19 1,959 1,976 1,954 1,966 1,971 1,964 -7 480,444 897,076
Jul-19 1,975 1,991 1,975 1,980 1,994 1,984 -10 1,298 18,408
Sep-19 2,008 2,012 1,993 1,999 2,018 2,001 -17 147,132 242,358
Nov-19 2,042 2,048 2,019 2,026 2,056 2,032 -24 4,386 770
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,811,110 lots, or 55.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 3,337 3,337 3,337 0 0 204
Jan-19 3,131 3,181 3,102 3,170 3,117 3,147 30 1,352,148 1,185,116
Mar-19 3,084 3,121 3,054 3,117 3,062 3,086 24 90,412 93,024
May-19 2,806 2,830 2,787 2,827 2,807 2,814 7 307,462 968,932
Jul-19 2,785 2,801 2,768 2,799 2,783 2,785 2 1,192 8,058
Aug-19 2,795 2,816 2,795 2,816 2,810 2,808 -2 8 218
Sep-19 2,822 2,842 2,804 2,837 2,822 2,829 7 58,690 241,078
Nov-19 2,841 2,857 2,825 2,850 2,841 2,842 1 1,198 1,118
Palm Oil
Turnover: 599,766 lots, or 25.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 4,416 4,416 4,416 0 0 4
Jan-19 4,210 4,220 4,126 4,164 4,214 4,174 -40 404,382 391,138
Feb-19 4,210 4,210 4,210 4,210 4,274 4,210 -64 2 4
Mar-19 4,376 4,382 4,286 4,382 4,340 4,354 14 8 10
Apr-19 – – – 4,442 4,442 4,442 0 0 18
May-19 4,480 4,496 4,416 4,458 4,490 4,452 -38 184,488 228,928
Jun-19 – – – 4,604 4,642 4,604 -38 0 52
Jul-19 – – – 4,676 4,714 4,676 -38 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,628 4,666 4,628 -38 0 2
Sep-19 4,588 4,616 4,542 4,558 4,606 4,568 -38 10,886 28,748
Oct-19 – – – 4,774 4,774 4,774 0 0 20
Nov-19 – – – 4,740 4,740 4,740 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 508,964 lots, or 27.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-18 – – – 5,240 5,284 5,240 -44 0 20
Jan-19 5,406 5,454 5,342 5,436 5,396 5,404 8 323,044 527,888
Mar-19 – – – 5,510 5,510 5,510 0 0 112
May-19 5,496 5,538 5,438 5,516 5,478 5,490 12 175,754 433,280
Jul-19 – – – 5,530 5,518 5,530 12 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,586 5,574 5,586 12 0 2
Sep-19 5,564 5,588 5,520 5,568 5,560 5,558 -2 10,166 41,180
Nov-19 – – – 5,568 5,568 5,568 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.